Original paper

Forecasting the invasive potential of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) in a large subtropical river using a univariate approach

Shuai, Fangmin; Li, Xinhui; Li, Yuefei; Jie, Li; Jiping, Yang; Lek, Sovan

Fundamental and Applied Limnology Volume 187 Nr. 2 (2015), p. 165 - 176

published: Dec 1, 2015

DOI: 10.1127/fal/2015/0828

BibTeX file

ArtNo. ESP141018702006, Price: 29.00 €

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Understanding the invasion potential of exotic species facilitates our ability to predict invasion success and, therefore, provides the basis for better-informed conservation and management policies. Here, we focus on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus 1758), one of the most widely farmed fish worldwide and a species that has escaped local aquaculture facilities to become established in a large subtropical river in south China. Using high-resolution monitoring time-series data, redundancy analysis was used to evaluate the effect of environment factors on Nile tilapia larval abundance. The results suggested that abiotic characteristics are not crucial in determining the spawning of this species in this area, except that the minimum temperature will affect its abundance to some extent. Seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average models were developed to determine the potential invasive trends of Nile tilapia. The models predicted that its population will increase in the coming years, although it currently remains a rare species in the Pearl River. These results indicate that the Nile tilapia could become a problematic invasive species in this River. Understanding processes such as these is the basis of controlling aquatic species invasion and the conservation of fish community diversity in south China and further afield.


nile tilapiaredundancy analysis (rda)seasonal arima modelenvironmental factorspearl riverinvasive potential