Thermal conditions during the summer season at the German Baltic coast in the 20th and 21st century
Tinz, Birger; Hupfer, Peter
Time-series of monthly means of surface air temperature and sea surface temperature in the near-shore zone are analysed for the warm season (May to September) with respect to long-term variations during the 20th century. The corresponding number of bathing days and frequency of days with different thermal comfort stages, representative for the German Baltic coast are deduced from this analysis. The increase of temperatures and other properties is found to be relatively small, though there is a great year-to-year-variability. Especially, the general warming with the maximum in the 1940ies is distinct. Prognostic estimations based on of the Global Circulation Model (GCM) ECHAM4_OPYC and the IPCC-scenario IS92a (further increase of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere) indicate a dramatic warming in the investigated area in the 21st century. This development is proposed to affect tourism strongly.