Original paper

Weather forecasts obtained with a Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique in a complex orography region

Cane, Daniele; Milelli, Massimo

Meteorologische Zeitschrift Vol. 15 No. 2 (2006), p. 207 - 214

published: Apr 27, 2006

DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0108

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ArtNo. ESP025011502009, Price: 29.00 €

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Abstract

The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique (KRISHNAMURTI et al., 2000a) is a new powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters. Several model outputs are combined, using weights calculated during a training period. Piedmont region is characterised by complex mountainous orography and direct model outputs, even from high-resolution limited area models, show many strong systematic and random errors in the forecast, compared to the values observed by our high-density non-GTS network. This is one of the first applications of this technique in a narrow mountain area and combines both global and limited-area models. Our results show a good improvement of meteorological parameter forecasts such as temperature, humidity, wind speed and precipitation.