Original paper

Downscaling of PDFs of daily air temperature in northern Poland: assessment of predictors

Marosz, Michał; Jakusik, Ewa

Meteorologische Zeitschrift Vol. 23 No. 2 (2014), p. 167 - 174

28 references

published: Sep 1, 2014
published online: Apr 4, 2014
manuscript accepted: Jan 5, 2014
manuscript revision received: Jan 3, 2014
manuscript received: Dec 17, 2012

DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2014/0467

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Abstract

The aim of the research was to validate a set of potential predictors for daily air temperature probability density function (PDF) parameters in northern Poland. The regional forcing comprised SLP (Sea Level Pressure), relative isobaric surface topography, and advection stability coefficients in the Euro-Atlantic region as well as an additional constrained spatial domain (for the air advection stability coefficient). The local response field comprised 24 stations located in northern Poland. The downscaling procedures were carried out in a seasonal framework using monthly values. The local field was described with fitted Gaussian distribution parameters (i.e., tave, average; sdt, standard deviation) of the daily air temperature. The temporal scope of analysis was 1971 to 2010. Potential regional predictors were assessed, and models were validated, which is important when empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) models are applied to predict future climate change in terms of the variability in the air temperature PDF parameters.

Keywords

empirical-statistical downscalingpredictors assessmentPDF downscalingair temperature