Original paper

Ensemble simulations for the RCP8.5-Scenario

Gerstengarbe, Friedrich-Wilhelm; Hoffmann, Peter; Österle, Hermann; Werner, Peter Christian

Meteorologische Zeitschrift Vol. 24 No. 2 (2015), p. 147 - 156

10 references

published: Apr 13, 2015
published online: Feb 11, 2015
manuscript accepted: Jun 26, 2014
manuscript revision received: Feb 3, 2014
manuscript revision requested: Aug 28, 2013
manuscript received: Aug 8, 2013

DOI: 10.1127/metz/2014/0523

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The mean climatic development for Germany was investigated within the period 2031/60 in comparison to the situation in the observational period 1981/2010. The RCP8.5-Scenario of the IPCC was used because it reflects the actual CO2-emissions very well. On this basis the temperature trend for Germany was estimated using 21 GCM runs up to the year 2100. This temperature trend was the driving force for the statistical regional climate model STARS. 100 ensemble runs of the model STARS were compared with the scenario period and with the observational period. Temperature, precipitation, climatic water balance and some additional parameters were analyzed. One important result is the change in the distribution of precipitation in Germany during the year – decrease in summer, increase in winter. Finally the future climate development leads to a negative climatic water balance over the whole year.


Climate development GermanyScenarioclimate model STARSclimatic water balance