Original paper

Time-consistent calibration of short-term regional wind power ensemble forecasts

Späth, Stephan; von Bremen, Lueder; Junk, Constantin; Heinemann, Detlev

Meteorologische Zeitschrift Vol. 24 No. 4 (2015), p. 381 - 392

38 references

published: Jul 21, 2015
published online: Apr 13, 2015
manuscript accepted: Mar 9, 2015
manuscript revision received: Feb 26, 2015
manuscript revision requested: Feb 22, 2015
manuscript received: Jan 7, 2015

DOI: 10.1127/metz/2015/0664

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With increasing wind power capacity, accurate uncertainty forecasts get more and more important for grid integration. The uncertainty of forecasts can be quantified by ensemble forecasts. We use ensemble forecasts from the COSMO-DE EPS to generate short-term ensemble forecasts of regionally aggregated wind power. The wind power forecasts are generated by an optimised regional power curve model that is based on minimum score estimation and leads to wind power forecasts with small deterministic errors. Remaining bias and dispersion errors in the wind power forecasts are removed by statistical post-processing (also called calibration) with ensemble model output statistics and the temporal rank correlation of the raw ensemble is maintained by ensemble copula coupling. The verification of raw and calibrated ensembles shows both strong improvements by calibration and the benefit of ensuring time consistency with ensemble copula coupling. The improvements are indicated by the multivariate energy score as well as in a proposed univariate verification approach that is based on integrated wind power forecast and measurement trajectories. Slight deficits in time consistency of the forecasts remain because the theoretical assumptions of ensemble copula coupling are not always fulfilled as the COSMO-DE EPS is based on distinguishable ensemble members. The more training days are used for calibration against measurements of regionally aggregated wind power, the lower is the improvement by calibration which contradicts former results for different variables like wind speed.


calibrationenergy meteorologyensemble copula couplingensemble post-processingprobabilistic forecastingregional wind power forecaststime trajectories