Early Warning Systems for Natural Disaster Reduction

Ed.: Jochen Zschau; Andreas N. Küppers

2003. 834 pages, 390 figures, 79 tables, 19x28cm, 1950 g
Language: English

ISBN 978-3-540-67962-2, bound, price: 160.00 €

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disasterearly warningtsunamiearthquake


Synopsis top ↑

This book offers a comprehensive account of early warning systems developed for hydro-meteorological disasters such as floods, storms, etc. and for geological disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic activity or mountain hazards. One major theme is the increasingly important role in early warning systems played by the rapidly evolving fields of space and information technology. Based on 109 selected contributions by outstanding experts in the relevant scientific and technical fields, presented at the International IDNDR Conference on Early Warning Systems for Natural Disaster Reduction (EWC 98) at the GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam, Germany, the authors offer a comprehensive overview and in-depth insight into the state of the art and future perspectives for early warning systems. This book is intended for decision-makers in the political arena, scientists, engineers and those responsible for public communication and dissemination of warnings.

Inhaltsverzeichnis top ↑

Eugen Seibold: Natural Disasters and Early Warning 3
I Bringing Early Warning to the People
Chapter 1.1 Bringing Early Warning to the People -
Terry Jeggle: Public and Partnership Responsibilities for Early Warning 13
Chapter 1.2 Early Warning Systems for the Reduction
of Natural Disasters in China 15
Zhen-Yao Wang, Yuan-Chang Zheng & Ji-Xun Li
Chapter 1.3 The Human Factor in Early Warnings: Risk Perception
and Appropriate Communications 19
John Twigg
Chapter 1.4 Scientific Contributions to Effective Early Warning
in an Environmental Context 27
Alexander L. Alusa
Chapter 1.5 Natural Disaster Early Warning: The Role of NGOs 33
Monica Omulo
Chapter 1.6 Community Mobilisation for Early Warning
in the Philippines 37
Zenaida G. Delica
Chapter 1.7 Disaster Management and Cyclone Warning System
in Bangladesh 49
Monowar Hossain Akhand
II Early Warning and Public Communication
Chapter 2.1 Public Communication of Warnings 67
Edward M. Gross
Chapter 4.12 Short-Time Flood Forecast Methodology Using
a Hydro-Meteorological Risk Concept for Flood Plains 253
Boris I. Gartsman & Mark S. Karasyov
Chapter 4.13 Hydro-Meteorological Tools for Flood Protection
in River Basins 259
Gabriele Malitz & Thilo Günther
Chapter 4.14 Extreme Runoff Events in Small Catchments - the Need
for a Proper Modelling Strategy for Early Warning Systems 265
Dieter Gutknecht
Chapter 4.15 Using Real Time Data and a Flow Prediction Model
to Assist in the Operation of the Orange River 271
Kerry A. Fair, Ronnie S. McKenzie & Andrew R. Craig
Chapter 4.16 GISELE: A New Capability for Flash Flood Early Warnings
Over Garonne River Sub-Basins 277
Francois Helloco, Jean-Jacques Vidal & Jean-Luc Cheze
Chapter 4.17 The Passage of the y97 Flood Wave on the Lower Odra 283
Dorota Dybkowska-Stefek & Wolfgang Rosenthal
Chapter 4.18 The Oder River Flood in Summer 1997 from Brandenburg
Point of View 289
Hartmut Niesche
Chapter 4.19 Cultural and Political Obstacles to Accepting Early Warnings
of the Aral Sea Disaster 305
Wilfried Ahrens
Chapter 4.20 Early Warning Systems for the Detection and Response
to Severe Floods 311
William J. R. Alexander
IVc Early Warning Systems Related to Drought and Mitigation of Famine
Chapter 4.21 Prediction of African Rainfall and Household Food Security 319
Thomas E. Downing & Richard Washington
Chapter 4.22 Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture: Appropriate Technology and Institutional Development Challenges 337
Abdur Rashid
Chapter 4.23 Early Warning and Geography: Space, Time and User Needs
(Example from Famine Early Warning) 345
Charles Kelly
Chapter 4.24 Agrometeorological Information System for Mitigation
of the Effects of Drought in Hungary 351
Attila Bussay
Chapter 4.25 Early and Dynamic Warning:
An Integrated Approach to Drought Management 357
Bhu Var Ahan Narasimhan
IV Monitoring and Early Warnings Related to the El Nino Phenomenon
Chapter 4.26 Monitoring and Early Warning Systems Related
to the El-Nino Phenomenon - An Overview 367
Hartmut Grassl
Chapter 4.27 Towards Operational Prediction of El Nino
by a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model 369
Hiroki Kondo
Chapter 4.28 Operational Seasonal Predictions in Australia 375
Grant Beard, Graham de Hoedt & Neil Plummer
Chapter 4.29 ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System: Performance
and Evaluation 379
David Anderson & Tim Stockdale
IV Early Warning Systems for Severe Weather Phenomena in Mid and High Latitudes
Chapter 4.30 Services from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute Can Reduce the Effects of Disasters - Both Natural and Man-Made 393
Jorgen Saltbones & Ole Nielsen
Chapter 4.31 The Early Warning and Forecasting System (EWFS)
for the Reduction of Serious Atmosphere-Hydrosphere
Disasters 399
Ang-Sheng Wang
V Early Warning Systems for the Mitigation of Geological Hazards
Chapter 5.1 Early Warning Systems for Mitigation of Geological Hazards -
an Overview 405
Robert M. Hamilton
VI Early Warning Systems for Earthquakes
Chapter 5.2 Earthquake Early Warning Systems: Current Status
and Perspectives 409
Willy H. K. Lee & Juan Manuel Espinosa-Aranda
Chapter 5.3 Earthquake Disasters: Prediction, Prevention
and Early Warning 425
Cinna Lomnitz
Chapter 5.4 Towards an Earthquake Early Warning System
for the Megacity of Istanbul 433
Jochen Zschau, M. Isikara, O. Ergünay, M.N. Yalcin & Mustafa Erdik
Chapter 5.5 The Seismic Alert System in Mexico City
and the School Prevention Program 441
Juan Manuel Espinosa-Aranda, A. Jimenez, G. Ibarrola,
F. Alcantar, A. Aguilar, M. Inostroza, S. Maldonado &
R. Higareda
Chapter 5.6 Earthquake Early Warning System in Japan 447
Keiji Doi
Chapter 5.7 UrEDAS: The Early Warning System for Mitigation
of Disasters Caused by Earthquakes and Tsunamis 453
Jun Saita & Yutaka Nakamura
Chapter 5.8 On the Establishment of an Automatic Earthquake Information Broadcast System in Taiwan 461
Yih-Min Wu, Jen-Kung Chung, Chen-Chun Chen,
Nai-Chi Hsiao, Tzay-Chyn Shin, Yi-Ben Tsai &
Kai-Wen Kuo
Chapter 5.9 European Warning System 465
Francoise Tondre
Chapter 5.10 25 Seconds for Bucharest 471
Friedemann Wenzel, Mihnea C. Oncescu, Michael Baur, Frank Fiedrich & Constantin Ionescu
Chapter 5.11 Early Warning Success for the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake: a Best Practice Integrating Public Administration
and Science 479
Jeanne-Marie Col & Jean J. Chu
Chapter 5.12 Predictions and Social Response Capacities in Face
of the 1995 Menglian Earthquake (M=7.3): an Overview . . 481 Ronghui Lin
Contents XIII
Chapter 5.13 Project of Creation of an Earthquake Early Warning System
for Armenia 487
S. Yu. Balassanian, Artak H. Martirossyan &
Valery G. Arzoumanian
Chapter 5.14 Can Plate Motion Surveys by GPS Measurements be Considered as an Alert System
in Earthquake Occurrence? 495
Abdelhakim Ayadi
Vb Early Warning Systems for Volcano Monitoring and Eruption Warnings
Chapter 5.15 Volcano Monitoring and Eruption Warnings 505
Robert I. Tilling
Chapter 5.16 Geochemical Monitoring on Merapi Volcano, Indonesia 511 Martin Zimmer & Joerg Erzinger
Chapter 5.17 Remote Sensing of Subglacial Eruptions in Iceland
and the Development of Related Warning Systems 515
Ulrich Münzer & Klaus Weber-Diefenbach
Chapter 5.18 Information and Warnings to Authorities and to the Public
About Seismic and Volcanic Hazards in Iceland 521
Ragnar Stefänsson
Chapter 5.19 The Merapi-Project - Interdisciplinary Monitoring of a High-Risk Volcano as a Basis
for an Early Warning System 527
Jochen Zschau, R. Sukhyar, M.A. Purbawinata, Birger-Gottfried Lühr & Malte Westerhaus
VII Early Warning Systems for Tsunami
Chapter 5.20 Early Warning Systems for Tsunami - an Overview 535
Michael E. Blackford
Chapter 5.21 Tsunami Warning System in Japan 537
Keiji Doi
Chapter 5.22 Advances in the Chilean Tsunami Warning System
and Application of the TIME Project to the Chilean Coast 543
Dante R. Gutierrez
Chapter 5.23 A Tsunami Warning System in the SW Aegean Sea,
Greece 549
Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos
VIII Early Warning Systems for Mountain Hazards
Chapter 5.24 Early Warning Systems Related to Mountain Hazards 555
Hans Kienholz
Chapter 5.25 Movement Studies to Forecast the Time of Breaking
off of Ice and Rock Masses 565
Matthias Wegmann, Martin Funk, Andre Flotron & Hansruedi Keusen
Chapter 5.26 Avalanche Warning Switzerland 2000 569
Tom Russi, Walter Ammann, Bernhard Brabec,
Michael Lehning & Roland Meister
Chapter 5.27 Monitoring the Conditions of Dangerous Lakes
in Uzbekistan and Contiguous Territories 579
Nicolay E. Gorelkin, V.E. Chub & Wilfried Ahrens
VI Early Warning Systems for Fire and Other Environmental Hazards
Chapter 6.1 The Contribution of the Global Fire Monitoring Center
(GFMC) for Early Warning and Management of Wildfires 585
Johann G. Goldammer, Georg Buchholz & Florian Resch
Chapter 6.2 Application of Logistic Models to Predict Human-Caused
Forest Fires in Siberia 593
Georg Buchholz, Johann G. Goldammer & David L. Martell
Chapter 6.3 The Use of Microsatellites in the Fight Against Pest Plagues 601
Frithjof Voss, Eckhardt Krabel & Udo Renner
Chapter 6.4 ECPC’s Global to Regional Fire Weather Forecast System 609
John Roads, Shyn-Chin Chen, Jack Ritchie, F. Fujioka, H. Juang & M. Kanamitsu
Chapter 6.5 Overview of Lightning Detectors: Their Role
in Risk Management of the Lightning Hazard 615
Richard Kithil
Chapter 6.6 Meteorology and Desert Locust: Experience
and Implementation of a Monitoring System 619
Brahim Ambar
Chapter 6.7 Early Warning Systems for Asteroid Impacts 625
Christian Gritzner
Chapter 6.8 Space-Borne Autonomous On-Board Recognition
of High Temperature Events 633
Dieter Oertel, B. Zhukov, Herbert Jahn, K. Briess & E. Lorenz
Chapter 6.9 Dedicated Earth Monitoring and Disaster Warning
Applications by Asia Pacific Advanced Network (APAN) 641
Haruhiro Fujita & Christopher Elvidge
Chapter 6.10 The Finnish Forest Fire Index Calculation System 645
Ari Venäläinen & Martti Heikinheimo
Chapter 6.11 Satellite-Based Forest Fire Detection and Automatic Alert
System - Pilot Experiment 649
Väinö Kelhä, Einar-Arne Herland & Anssi Lohi
VII Early Warning Systems for Rapid Damage Assessment and the Mitigation of Technological Hazards
Chapter 7.1 Technological Hazards 657
Peter Krejsa
Chapter 7.2 Early Warning Systems for Mitigation of Earthquake-Related
Technological Risks 675
Fumio Yamazaki
Chapter 7.3 A New Concept for the Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation
and its Application to the Early Warning System 693
Yutaka Nakamura
Chapter 7.4 Real-Time City Gas Network Damage Estimation System: SIGNAL 701
Yoshihisa Shimizu & K. Takahashi
Chapter 7.5 GPS Monitoring of Structures: Recent Advances 709
Mehmet Qelebi, Will Prescott, Ross Stein,
Ken Hudnut, Jeff Behr & Steve Wilson
Chapter 7.6 The Earthquake Early Warning System
of the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant 715
Fridrikh Arakelyan & Hrahat Hakobyan
Chapter 7.7 Concept for Seismic Alarm and Monitoring
of Soviet-Designed Nuclear Power Plants 719
Lothar Griesser, M. Wieland & C. Kuendig
Chapter 7.8 Optimizing the Seismic Early Warning System
for the Tohoku Shinkansen 727
Daniele Veneziano & Achilleas G. Papadimitriou
VIII The Role of Satellite Techniques in Early Warning Systems: State-of-the-art and Perspectives
Chapter 8.1 Toward an Integrated Space Strategy
for Disaster Management 737
Helen M. Wood
Chapter 8.2 The Satellite Techniques in Early Warning Systems for Large Towns and Megacities 741
Yu. A. Kravtsov, Efim B. Kudashev, V.V. Golomolzin & M. A. Sharakhmanyan
Chapter 8.3 Monitoring Fires with European Remote Sensing Satellite,
ERS-2: The “Rush ATSR Fire Product” Demonstration 745
Alessandra Buongiorno, O. Arino & C. Zehner
Chapter 8.4 Remote Sensing and GIS for Warning of Geological Hazards:
Application in Vietnam 753
Phan Trong Trinh
Chapter 8.5 The SAF Concept: European Networked Approach for Organising the Generation of Products Based
on Satellite Data 763
W. Benesch, J. Kerkmann, Helmut Neumeister & Y. Trehin
Chapter 8.6 Use of Advanced Earth Observation Capabilities for Disaster
Management - The Example of the Oder Flood 1997 769
Wolfgang Steinborn & Thomas Ruwwe
Chapter 8.7 The Use of NOAA/AVHRR Data for Flood Disaster
Monitoring in the Mekong River Delta 781
Minh Hien Hoang
IX Special Problems of Early Warning Systems for Developing Countries and Small Island States
Chapter 9.1 An Early Warning System for Use in Developing Countries
and Small Island States 791
Adigun Ade Abiodun & Victor Kotelnikov
Chapter 9.2 Small Island States and Early Warning Systems 797
Cyril E. Berridge
Chapter 9.3 Tropical Cyclone Warnings and the Factors that Influence
Response: The Trinidad and Tobago Experience 801
Steve R. Pollonais
Chapter 9.4 Special Problems Faced by Sri Lanka as a Small Island
State with Regard to Early Warning Systems for Cyclonic
Storms 807
Prabhath Patabendi
Chapter 9.5 Transferring Flood Warning Technology
to Vulnerable Communities in Jamaica 811
Barbara E. Carby
X Future Technology Needs, Accessibility and Affordability of Early Warning Systems
Chapter 10.1 Technical Requirements for Early Warning Systems 817
Hans Secher Schmidt
Officers List 823
Author Index 827
Subject Index