Cover image of:  - Monitoring Compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) Contributions by the German National Data Center

Monitoring Compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)

Contributions by the German National Data Center

Ed.: Christoph Pilger; Lars Ceranna; Christian Bönnemann

2017. 325 pages, 217 figures, 19 tables, 21x29cm, 1530 g
Language: English

(Geologisches Jahrbuch Reihe B, Band B 105)

ISBN 978-3-510-96858-9, bound, price: 58.00 €

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Keywords

nuclear explosions • seismic waves • radionuclides • remote sensing • earthquakes • North Korea

Contents

Synopsis top ↑

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is dedicated to banning nuclear explosions worldwide. It was negotiated and adopted by the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva to comprehensively prohibit nuclear testing underground, underwater, and in the atmosphere. It was opened for signature in 1996 and will enter into force as soon as all 44 nuclear technology holder countries, as denoted in Annex 2 to the Treaty, will have signed and ratified it.
Germany signed the CTBT in 1996 and ratified it in 1998, thereby committing to establish a National Data Center (NDC) and to install, operate, and maintain five stations of the International Monitoring System (IMS) for monitoring the compliances with the Treaty. Contributions on various CTBT related topics by authors from the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources in Hannover (Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, BGR), which has been mandated by Germany as the NDC, are presented in this book.
Studies on institutional, technical and scientific aspects in the CTBT context are described to highlight recent, current and future work at the German NDC and to contribute to the CTBT monitoring and verification tasks. Nevertheless, this book focuses primarily on those aspects of the verification regime where BGR has expertise as well as BGR’s activities and responsibilities as the German NDC and an IMS station operator during the last twenty years.
An overview of the CTBT history, verification, and implementation in Germany is provided together with a description of the five German IMS stations and the seismology, infrasound, hydroacoustic and radionuclide technologies. Studies on the global performance of the IMS technologies to detect, locate, and identify nuclear and non-nuclear events are presented, as well as various case studies on the application, testing and benchmarking of these technologies. These case studies include, in particular, the North Korean nuclear weapon tests from 2006 to 2016, but also the National Data Center preparedness exercises from 2007 to 2013, the Tohoku earthquake with tsunami and Fukushima reactor accident in 2011, and the Chelyabinsk meteoroid explosion in 2013.
Further studies are related to considerations on the quality of CTBT International Data Center waveform products, and to the usefulness and potential of satellite remote sensing in CTBT context as a National Technical Means (NTM). Finally, the role of On-Site Inspection (OSI) in general and, specifically, Seismic Aftershock Monitoring Systems (SAMS) are discussed for investigating potential treaty violations as the ultimate step in the verification chain.

Inhaltsbeschreibung top ↑

Der Kernwaffenteststopp-Vertrag (CTBT) ist ein internationales Abkommen zum weltweiten Verbot von Kernwaffenversuchen – sowohl unterirdisch als auch unter Wasser und in der Atmosphäre, gleich ob für zivile oder militärische Zwecke. Der Vertrag wurde auf der Abrüstungskonferenz der Vereinten Nationen in Genf ausgehandelt und liegt seit 1996 zur Unterschrift aus. Er tritt in Kraft, sobald alle 44 Staaten, die im Besitz von Nukleartechnologie sind (und im Annex 2 des Vertrages namentlich genannt werden), ihn unterschrieben und ratifiziert haben. Ein internationales Überwachungssystem (IMS) mit über den Globus verteilten Messstationen soll die Einhaltung des Vertrages sicherstellen.
Deutschland unterzeichnete den Vertrag 1996, ratifizierte ihn 1998 und verpflichtete sich damit zur Einrichtung eines Nationalen Datenzentrums (NDC) und zum Aufbau und Betrieb von fünf Messstationen im Rahmen des IMS.
Zunächst wird ein Überblick über die Geschichte des Kernwaffenteststopp-Verfahrens, über dessen Verifikation und Implementierung in Deutschland gegeben. Dann werden die fünf deutschen IMS-Stationen sowie die Überwachungstechnologien Seismologie, Infraschall, Hydroakustik und Radionuklide vorgestellt. Um die Anwendung dieser Technologien im Rahmen der Aufdeckung nuklearer und nicht-nuklearer Ereignisse sowie um ausgewählte Test- und Anwendungsfälle des Überwachungssystems geht es im Weiteren. Dazu zählen die Kernwaffentests Nordkoreas zwischen 2006 und 2016, die NDC-Bereitschaftsübungen von 2007 bis 2013, das Tohoku-Erdbeben mit Tsunami und dem Reaktorunfall 2011 und der Meteorit von Tscheljabinsk 2013.
Andere Beiträge befassen sich mit Qualitätsanalysen der Wellenformprodukte des internationalen CTBT-Datenzentrums, mit den Potenzialen der Satelliten-Fernerkundung, der Bedeutung von Vor-Ort-Inspektionen (OSI ) sowie der seismischen Nachbebenüberwachung (SA MS) bei der Untersuchung möglicher CTBTVertragsverletzungen als letzten Schritt in der Verifikationskette.

Book Review: Geophysical Journal International (2019) 217 top ↑

For decades, the nuclear weapons capability of different countries was tracked in part via the interpretation of signals from more than 2000 nuclear test explosions that were conducted in programs of weapons development. The first such explosion took place in July 1945 (in New Mexico, USA, prior to the use of nuclear weapons in World War 2 against Japan). The last nuclear test, prior to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) becoming open for signature in September 1996, was in July 1996 (in China). This treaty, which took nearly forty years to negotiate, has been signed by 184 states as of December 2018, but a few key additional signatures and ratifications are still needed before nuclear tests are banned under international law. The evidence that a nuclear test explosion has occurred can come from electromagnetic, seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasonic waves; and from unusual radionuclides—which can be present in particulate matter and/or as noble gases. Of course there is a vast infrastructure associated with military programs of nuclear weapons development in a limited number of countries. Less well-known, is the existence of a large infrastructure involving national and international efforts to monitor for the possible occurrence of nuclear test explosions, and thus to support CTBT verification.
This book does a very good job of explaining much of that work, as it is conducted in practice by a western nation with sophisticated facilities.
Beginning early in the cold war, the effort to detect and interpret signals from nuclear testing became a driving force that influenced the development of geophysics and geochemistry. In particular, seismology—the most quantitative of geophysical sciences—has been strongly shaped by investments needed to monitor not only earthquakes, but nuclear test explosions. The experience acquired for more than 50 yr prior to finalizing the CTBT, from monitoring nuclear tests in the atmosphere, underwater, in space, and under-ground, is now being put to the very different purpose of supporting a major initiative in nuclear arms control. A principal goal of the CTBT has always been to provide a restraint on nuclear weapon states—inhibiting further technical advances in weaponry — that in some respects balances the obligation of non-nuclear weapon states, under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, not to acquire nuclear explosion technology. Because of its extensive verification provisions, the CTBT is arguably the most complex of all nuclear arms control treaties. This book gives practical details of the monitoring system, as seen from the perspective of a country, Germany, with experience in all the key monitoring technologies deployed globally.
The CTBT has become associated with a huge reduction in nuclear testing. Since 1996 a handful of test explosions was carried out by India and Pakistan in May, 1998. But only North Korea has tested so far in the present century. Today, the monitoring capability accumulated in decades since 1945 is being applied not only for purposes of characterizing the limited number of nuclear test explosions which have been conducted since 1996, but for building confidence that CTBT signatories are honoring their obligation not to engage in nuclear testing. This treaty could not have come about, unless monitoring capability was deemed credible. And the book here under review explains in some detail how the practical work of monitoring is done, using several different technologies—of which seismology is the most important, because of its utility in characterizing nuclear tests in the environment that in practice has proved hardest to monitor, namely, underground.
So: a serious subject. And here we have a serious book, laying out features of the International Monitoring System (IMS) and the International Data Centre (IDC), both of them operated by the CTBT Organization (CTBTO), headquartered in Vienna, Austria. The IMS organizes the global operation of more than 300 stations and acquires their data, which is transmitted via a Global Communications Infrastructure to Vienna. There, the data streams are analysed at the International Data Centre (IDC), which issues a variety of reports on global activity, pertinent to the possibility — or the actuality — of a nuclear explosion having occurred. These reports are communicated back to state signatories, many of which operate National Data Centres (NDCs) that can both contribute to IMS station operations, and receive technical information from the IDC.
This book explains the work of the German NDC in a series of fourteen chapters that present the challenges and successes of monitoring for an activity that in recent years has been happening only in North Korea. Introductory material is followed by chapter 1 on general aspects of CTBT verification, and chapter 2 on specific details of operating Germany’s five IMS stations (two that acquire seismic data, two infrasonic and one for radionuclides). Four chapters then follow, on the four IMS/IDC technologies, namely seismic, infrasonic, hydroacoustic and radionuclide monitoring. Chapter 7 describes data that enabled verification of North Korea’s first five nuclear test explosions (2006–2016), and chapter 8 is on exercises to ensure the preparedness of NDCs to do their work. Our active planet exhibits a variety of natural phenomena that can sometimes be well-characterized, for a global audience, by IMS data and its analysis by the IDC. Important examples are described, in chapter 9 about the offshore Tohoku, Japan, M 9 earthquake of 11 March 2011, its tsunami, and the radionuclide releases from tsunami-damaged nuclear reactors at Fukushima; and then in chapter 10 on the huge explosion (comparable to half a megaton of TNT) of a meteorite on 15 February 2013, in the atmosphere above Chelyabinsk, Russia, which generated infrasound detected by half the global IMS infrasound network. Chapter 11 outlines standard data products generated by the IDC, which are important not only for the direct evidence they present, of phenomena (both nuclear explosive and non-nuclear), characterized by the IMS stations, but also for the guidance they provide to enable acquisition of non-IMS data — potentially available from some of the thousands of ground-based stations and satellites operated for purposes having nothing directly to do with CTBT monitoring, but which by happenstance were in the right place and at the right time to acquire data from events of interest on the basis of IMS data. Such non-IMS data have sometimes proved helpful in the interpretation of events reported by the IDC. And finally chapters 13 and 14 concern technologies being developed to supplement IMS data, if an on-site inspection (OSI) were to be conducted for purposes of clarifying the nature of an event which had been deemed suspicious, on the basis of remote data acquired by the IMS and perhaps by other stations. The framework within which OSIs can be requested and carried out, is predicated on the CTBT being formally in effect. That political situation may now seem far away—but then, it once seemed (in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s) that the CTBT would never even be negotiated. Even in the cold war, efforts to control nuclear weapons went forward and influenced international policy. Such efforts sometimes moved rapidly in the aftermath of international concerns over specific crises — for example, the Atmospheric Test Ban Treaty of 1963 followed the clash over Soviet missiles discovered in Cuba in 1962. The book has some mistakes (the Soviet Union carried out 715 nuclear tests, not ‘more than a thousand’; the auxiliary network of seismographic stations in practice generates an available data stream that is continuous); and it was published before the sixth — and by far the largest — North Korean nuclear test, of September 3, 2017. It would be helpful if the publisher—Germany’s Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources—put corrections and updates on a BGR website. But in general the quality of the material is high. The CTBT is a serious and historic effort that attempts to control further development of nuclear weapons. It could be put formally into place in a short period of time — if conditions become ripe — in part because of the extensive preparatory work, rooted in the geosciences, described in this book.

Paul G. Richards, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York, USA.

Geophysical Journal International (2019) 217, p. 485-486

Table of Contents top ↑

Introduction 15
Overview and the Role of Germany in the Verification Regime
1 Verification of the CTBT and its Implementation in Germany 21
Christian Bönnemann
1.1 Introduction 21
1.2 Verification regime 24
1.3 Seismological monitoring of nuclear explosions in Germany
(before the CTBT) 25
1.4 Implementation of the CTBT in Germany 28
1.5 Verification of the CTBT in Germany 29
1.6 Main CTBT actors of the German Federal Government 33
1.7 Other German CTBT actors 34
2 German Contributions to the International Monitoring System (IMS) 35
Peter J. Gaebler, Christoph Pilger, Lars Ceranna, Gernot Hartmann,
J. Ole Ross, Clemens SChlosser & Andreas Bollhöfer
2.1 Introduction 35
2.2 Station operation and maintenance 39
2.3 Primary seismic monitoring station PS19 41
2.4 Auxiliary seismic monitoring station AS035 46
2.5 Infrasound array IS26 48
2.6 Infrasound array IS27 53
2.7 Radionuclide monitoring station RN33 59
Verification Technologies of the International Monitoring System
3 The Seismic Network of the International Monitoring System (IMS) 69
Peter J. Gaebler & Lars Ceranna
3.1 Introduction 69
3.2 IMS seismic network stations 70
3.3 Global seismicity and nuclear explosion tests 74
3.4 Event discrimination and magnitude-yield relationships 76
3.5 Detection capability of the seismic network – methodology 78
3.6 Detection capability of the seismic network – results 81
3.7 Comparison of the detection capability against REB events 89
3.8 Conclusions90
4 The Infrasound Network of the International Monitoring System
(IMS) 91

Christoph Pilger, Lars Ceranna & Alexis le Pichon
4.1 Introduction 91
4.2 Infrasound – an overview 91
4.3 Infrasound activity in Central and Northern Europe 93
4.4 Infrasound activity from Mt. Etna volcano 98
4.5 IMS global network performance 104
4.6 Conclusions 108

5 The Hydroacoustic Network of the International Monitoring System
(IMS) 111

Christoph Pilger & Lars Ceranna
5.1 Introduction 111
5.2 Hydroacoustic stations and technology 111
5.3 Hydroacoustic propagation 113
5.4 Hydroacoustic monitoring – examples of natural and anthropogenic
signals 116
5.5 Worldwide location of hydroacoustic events 119
5.6 Conclusions 121
6 The IMS Radionuclide Network Supported by
Atmospheric Transport Modelling (ATM) 123

J. Ole Ross, Andreas Bollhöfer & Clemens Schlosser
6.1 Introduction 123
6.2 Anthropogenic fission products in the atmosphere 125
6.3 Atmospheric Transport Modelling 129
6.4 Conclusions 133
7 Verification of the North Korean Nuclear Explosions
2006, 2009, 2013, and 2016 137

Gernot Hartmann, Andreas Barth, J. Ole Ross, Ilona Grünberg & Michaela Frei
7.1 Introduction 137
7.2 Seismic event localization 138
7.3 Source identification 141
7.4 Yield estimation 148
7.5 Moment tensor inversion 152
7.6 Radionuclide evidence 156
7.7 New and future system developments for CTBT 162
7.8 Conclusions 164
8 National Data Center Preparedness Exercises (NPE) for an
Independent Performance Assessment 167

J. Ole Ross, Nicolai Gestermann, Thomas Plenefisch,
Gernot Hartmann & Lars Ceranna
8.1 Introduction 167
8.2 First ideas realized in NPE2007 and NPE2008 168
8.3 NPE2009 – introducing “data fusion” 169
8.4 Complex multi-technology scenario for NPE2010 171
8.5 Straight non-compliance in NPE2012 179
8.6 NPE2013 181
8.7 NPE2015 185 .
8.8 Conclusions 185
9 The Tohoku Earthquake with Tsunami and the Fukushima Releases as
Performance Test for the International Monitoring System (IMS) 187

J. Ole Ross, Thomas Plenefisch, Lars Ceranna,
Andreas Bollhöfer & Clemens Schlosser
9.1 Introduction 187
9.2 The Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011 187
9.3 Atmospheric Transport Modelling simulating the Fukushima
radionuclide plume arrival at IMS stations across the globe 194
9.4 Backward modelling – finding Fukushima 199
9.5 Potential blinding of the IMS 200
9.6 Conclusions 203

10 Chelyabinsk – a Benchmark for Global Infrasound Detections
205

Christoph Pilger, Karl Koch, J. Ole Ross & Lars Ceranna
10.1 Introduction 205
10.2 Chelyabinsk – event description and source characteristics 205
10.3 Detections and non-detections by the global IMS network 206
10.4 Infrasound propagation modelling 211
10.5 Discussion of parameters influencing detection capability 213
10.6 The seismoacoustic fingerprint of the fireball across Central and Northern Europe 216
10.7 Conclusions 222
International Data Center,
National Technical Means and On-Site Inspection

11 Some Considerations on the Quality of International Data Center (IDC)
Standard Waveform Products 227

Karl Koch
11.1 Introduction 227
11.2 Quality control work on the IDC Reviewed Event Bulletin 229
11.3 The impact of interactive analysis on bulletin quality at the
International Data Center in 2007 235
11.4 Conclusions 246
12 Remote Sensing Data in Support of CTBT Monitoring: Case Studies of
Underground Nuclear Explosions 247

Jörg Schlittenhardt, Morton Canty, Xiaoying Cong & Ilona Grünberg
12.1 Introduction 247
12.2 DInSAR processing of ERS data over NTS 247
12.3 Co-seismic deformation 250
12.4 Post-seismic deformation 250
12.5 Wide-area change-detection: A case study of Nevada Test Site underground
nuclear explosions using conventional multispectral satellite data 254
12.6 Comparison of differential SAR interferometry and wide-area
change-detection results 255
12.7 Case study of the nuclear test in North Korea of October 9, 2006 255
12.8 Conclusions 257
13 The Role of On-Site Inspections (OSI) of the CTBT 259
Nicolai Gestermann, Martin Müller & Franz Groneschild
13.1 Introduction 259
13.2 Regulations and provisions from the Treaty 261
13.3 Decision about the conduct of an OSI 263
13.4 Possible scenarios for an OSI request 264
13.5 The role of NTM in case of an OSI 264
13.6 OSI technologies 266
13.7 OSI search logic and management systems 272
13.8 Results of an OSI 273
13.9 Integrated Field Exercises 2008 and 2014 274
13.10 Training and nomination of inspectors 277
13.11 Conclusions 278
14 The Seismic Aftershock Monitoring System (SAMS) for
On-Site Inspections (OSI) of the CTBT 279

Nicolai Gestermann, Benjamin Sick & Manfred Joswig
14.1 Introduction 279
14.2 Physical background 283
14.3 The role of SAMS in case of an OSI 285
14.4 The method of Nanoseismic Monitoring 286
14.5 SAMS at the IFE14 290
14.6 Detection threshold estimation of SAMS networks 296
14.7 Conclusions 299
References 303

Acronyms and Abbreviations 317
About the Authors 321