Beitrag
Climate change and society: possible impacts and prospective developments
Sommer, Bernd; Schad, Miriam
Meteorologische Zeitschrift Vol. 24 No. 2 (2015), p. 137 - 145
45 Literaturangaben
veröffentlicht: Apr 13, 2015
Online veröffentlicht: Feb 11, 2015
Manuskript akzeptiert: Feb 26, 2014
finale Ms. Revision erhalten: Oct 17, 2013
Manuskript-Revision angefordert: Aug 20, 2013
Manuskript erhalten: Jul 31, 2013
Open Access (Arbeit kann kostenlos heruntergeladen werden)
Abstract
Based on the climate scenario presented in this special issue of the Meteorologische Zeitschrift, the paper describes potential societal consequences of climatic changes modelled for Germany in the period 2031/50. Firstly, we deal with possibilities and limitations of modelling societal developments, and explain our preference to rely mainly on qualitative data and descriptions. The second part of the paper describes central societal trends in Germany that are likely to form the background for climatic changes over the next three decades. This is followed by an exemplary examination of possible impacts of climatic changes on technology and infrastructure, which can be expected to stress Germany’s current patterns of transport and mobility. The last part of the paper outlines a socially differentiated analysis of climate change impacts, especially the increased probability of extreme heat waves. The analysis shows that, parallel to climate change, societal developments – some mutually reinforcing – will take place, which might increase Germany’s vulnerability to weather-related hazards.
Schlagworte
Climate Change Impacts • Social Dimensions of Climate Change • Germany