Original paper
Climate change accelerates habitat expansion of the oriental migratory locust in China: Insights from biological and ecological models
Feng, Shiqian; Dong, Siyan; Chang, Xiao; Wang, Shaodan; Nadira, Sultanova; Uspanov, Alibek; Nurjonov, Fozilbek; Ullah, Farman; Shi, Shuai; Zhang, Zehua; Tu, Xiongbing
published online: Apr 20, 2026
manuscript accepted: Jan 15, 2026
final revised version received: Nov 28, 2025
manuscript revision requested: Nov 13, 2025
manuscript received: May 27, 2025
Abstract
The oriental migratory locust, Locusta migratoria manilensis, a major agricultural pest in China, faces shifting habitat suitability under climate change. Integrating a biological model (MDD, modified degree-day model) and an ecological niche model (MaxEnt) with six downscaled the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) climate datasets, we quantified temperature-driven distribution changes from 1961–2100. Provincial analyses identified winter half-year temperature as a critical factor, which is an important period for diapause egg survival, emphasizing the pivotal role of population baselines in locust outbreaks. The results from both models (MDD and MaxEnt) and six climate model datasets revealed an overall accelerated northward habitat expansion, with northeastern China as a hotspot. The suitable habitat increased by 19.71% (0.61 million km2, MDD) and 4.41% (0.11 million km2, MaxEnt) during 1961–2020. MIROC6, the best-fitting climate dataset to real observation data, projected 10.42% (MDD) and 1.78% (MaxEnt) expansion during 1961–2020, rising to 21.92% (MDD) and 6.21% (MaxEnt) from 2020–2100. This shift transforms marginal regions (e.g., Heilongjiang, Jilin provinces) into year-round breeding zones, exemplified by the 2017–2018 outbreak in Jilin province after decades of thermal accumulation. The MDD model, sensitive to thermal thresholds, projects larger suitable areas than MaxEnt, reflecting its focus on physiological limits versus MaxEnt’s biotic constraints. Our dual-model framework resolves key limitations of single-model approaches, offering actionable insights for monitoring and management.
Keywords
MaxEnt • diapause dynamics • degree-day • projection • habitat expansion and suitability • pest risk mapping • overwintering • thermal adaptation