Original paper
Historical Record of November 2024 Typhoons in Hong Kong: Observations and Forecasts of Yinxing, Toraji, and Man-yi
Choy, C. W.; Chan, P. W.; Cheung, P.; Lam, C. C.; Chow, C. K.; Chan, Y. W.; He, Y. H.; Lai, S. K.; He, J. Y.; Wang, Y.
Meteorologische Zeitschrift Vol. 34 No. 4 (2026), p. 251 - 276
published: Feb 5, 2026
published online: Nov 12, 2025
manuscript accepted: Aug 9, 2025
final revised version received: May 26, 2025
manuscript revision requested: Mar 18, 2025
manuscript received: Dec 17, 2024
DOI: 10.1127/metz/1267
Open Access (paper may be downloaded free of charge)
Abstract
In November 2024, four tropical cyclones (TCs) developed consecutively over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. This is the first time that the simultaneous occurrence of four TCs was documented in this ocean basin. The climatological background for this phenomenon was analysed in this paper. The observational aspects of the three TCs affecting Hong Kong have been analysed using dropsonde data, weather buoy observations (particularly change in sea temperatures in the upper ocean), and radar imageries (in the region of gale force winds around Hong Kong). The forecasting aspects of the TCs are also discussed. In particular, the performance of artificial intelligence models in forecasting TC tracks and intensities has been reviewed. The first time real-time, operational use of an atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled model was discussed. The significant wave height forecasts during the passage of the three TCs over the South China Sea was also analysed using the Operational Marine Forecasting System of the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) in comparison with the weather buoy observations of this basin. This paper serves to document the climatological, observational and forecasting aspects of this unprecedented case of simultaneous occurrence of four TCs in the fall season over the South China Sea and western North Pacific for future reference.
Keywords
Tropical cyclone • dropsonde • AI models • significant waves