Beitrag
Statistical postprocessing of ensemble global radiation forecasts with penalized quantile regression
Ben Bouallègue, Zied
Meteorologische Zeitschrift Vol. 26 No. 3 (2017), p. 253 - 264
56 Literaturangaben
veröffentlicht: Jun 14, 2017
Online veröffentlicht: Jun 24, 2016
Manuskript akzeptiert: Mar 24, 2016
finale Ms. Revision erhalten: Feb 19, 2016
Manuskript-Revision angefordert: Feb 12, 2016
Manuskript erhalten: Oct 22, 2015
Open Access (Arbeit kann kostenlos heruntergeladen werden)
Abstract
Nowadays, ensemble-based numerical weather forecasts provide probabilistic guidance to actors in the renewable energy sector. Ensemble forecasts can however suffer from statistical inconsistencies that affect the forecast reliability. Statistical post-processing techniques address this issue using learning algorithms based on past data. In this study, it is shown that quantile regression is a suitable method for the post-processing of ensemble global radiation forecasts. In a basic approach, conditional quantiles are estimated using the first guess quantile forecasts and a solar geometry variable as predictors. In a more complex approach, adequate meteorological predictors are selected among a pool of ensemble model outputs by means of a regularization scheme. The so-called penalized quantile regression and the basic quantile regression approaches, respectively, are applied to hourly averaged global radiation forecasts of the high-resolution ensemble prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS. Both calibration setups provide reliable probabilistic forecasts at all investigated probability levels, which improves considerably the ensemble forecast skill. Moreover, verification results demonstrate that including rigorously selected predictors in the regression scheme increases the ensemble forecast sharpness and thereby the value of the probabilistic guidance.
Schlagworte
calibration • ensemble forecast • global radiation • penalized regression • quantile regression