Contribution
Characterization of Spread in a Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System: Multiphysics versus Initial Conditions
Fernández-González, Sergio; Sastre, Mariano; Valero, Francisco; Merino, Andrés; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Luis Sánchez, José; Lorenzana, Jesús; Martín, María Luisa
Meteorologische Zeitschrift Vol. 28 No. 1 (2019), p. 59 - 67
46 références bibliographiques
publié: Mar 22, 2019
publication en ligne: Nov 23, 2018
manuscrit accepté: Oct 12, 2018
révision final du manuscrit reçu: Sep 5, 2018
révision du manuscrit demandée: Aug 27, 2018
manuscrit reçu: Apr 5, 2018
Open Access (article peut être télechargé gratuitement)
Abstract
In this research, uncertainty associated with initial and boundary conditions is evaluated for short-term wind speed prediction in complex terrain. The study area is the Alaiz mountain range, a windy region in the northern Iberian Peninsula. A multiphysics and multiple initial and boundary condition ensemble prediction system (EPS) was generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Uncertainty of the EPS is analyzed using an index based on the spread between ensemble members, considering its behavior under different wind speed and direction events, and also during distinct atmospheric stability conditions. The results corroborate that physical parameterization uncertainty is greater for short-term forecasts (63.5 %). However, it is also necessary to consider the uncertainty associated with initial conditions, not only for its quantitative importance (36.5 %) but also for its behavior during thermal inversion conditions in the narrow valleys surrounded by mountains.
Mots-clefs
wind • physical parameterizations • initial conditions • uncertainty