Beitrag
Characterization of Spread in a Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System: Multiphysics versus Initial Conditions
Fernández-González, Sergio; Sastre, Mariano; Valero, Francisco; Merino, Andrés; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Luis Sánchez, José; Lorenzana, Jesús; Martín, María Luisa
Meteorologische Zeitschrift Vol. 28 No. 1 (2019), p. 59 - 67
46 Literaturangaben
veröffentlicht: Mar 22, 2019
Online veröffentlicht: Nov 23, 2018
Manuskript akzeptiert: Oct 12, 2018
finale Ms. Revision erhalten: Sep 5, 2018
Manuskript-Revision angefordert: Aug 27, 2018
Manuskript erhalten: Apr 5, 2018
Open Access (Arbeit kann kostenlos heruntergeladen werden)
Abstract
In this research, uncertainty associated with initial and boundary conditions is evaluated for short-term wind speed prediction in complex terrain. The study area is the Alaiz mountain range, a windy region in the northern Iberian Peninsula. A multiphysics and multiple initial and boundary condition ensemble prediction system (EPS) was generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Uncertainty of the EPS is analyzed using an index based on the spread between ensemble members, considering its behavior under different wind speed and direction events, and also during distinct atmospheric stability conditions. The results corroborate that physical parameterization uncertainty is greater for short-term forecasts (63.5 %). However, it is also necessary to consider the uncertainty associated with initial conditions, not only for its quantitative importance (36.5 %) but also for its behavior during thermal inversion conditions in the narrow valleys surrounded by mountains.
Schlagworte
wind • physical parameterizations • initial conditions • uncertainty